Оценка устойчивости макрорегионов России на основе индекса инклюзивного развития

Abstract

The article analyzes the concepts of “sustainable development” and “inclusive growth” in relation to territorial systems, substantiates the need for their application not only at the national, but also at the regional and macro-regional levels. The author adapts the methodology suggested by the World Economic Forum for the calculation of the Inclusive Development Index in relation to the macro-regions of Russia, which are federal districts, for the period 2008–2018. As a result of the study, the author makes a rating of the inclusive development of macro-regions. The leader of the rating during 11 years is the Central Federal District. The second and third ranks have the Ural and North-Western federal districts. The least stable from the point of view of inclusive development are the Siberian and North Caucasian federal districts. The fourth, fifth and sixth places are occupied by the Far Eastern, Volga and Southern Federal districts. Macro-regions were also divided into groups in accordance with average values of the inclusive development index and their dynamics for the whole period under analysis: developed, developing, stagnating and regressing regions. The Central and Far Eastern federal districts were classified as developed ones, North-Western, Volga and Ural districts as stagnating ones, and Southern, North-Caucasian and Siberian federal districts as regressing ones. None of the macro-regions was included into the developing group. A retrospective analysis of the economic, social and environmental development as a whole indicates the negative dynamics of the inclusive growth in the macro-regions of Russia. The lowest values with negative dynamics show the intergenerational equality and sustainability indicators, what is explained by a low level of debt sustainability of the regions, the growing demographic dependency ratio and a relatively high volume of gross emissions into the atmosphere. The methodology suggested by the author can be used as an alternative indicator to gross regional product at the macroregional level.