확산모형을 이용한 주택용 상계 태양광 설비 보급량 예측

Abstract

Most countries around the world are implementing carbon neutrality to respond to climate disasters. Solar photovoltaic (PV) plays an important role in carbon neutrality because it is easy to install and its cost is rapidly declining. Residential solar PV has the advantage of not requiring investment in transmission and distribution facilities and reducing the maximum load by lowering peak power demand. However, residential solar PV generation is variable and cannot be reliably predicted, causing uncertainty in the power system. Therefore, it is important to accurately forecast the size of residential solar PV capacity in order to prepare countermeasures that can enhance the stability of such power systems from a long-term perspective. This study forecasts the capacity of residential solar PV net metering in South Korea using diffusion models. The Gompertz model provided the best fit for the diffusion pattern of residential solar PV net metering in South Korea, outperforming the Bass and Logistic models. When the Gompertz model was used to predict the residential solar PV net metering capacity over the next 15 years, an increase from 2.1 GW (8.8% of total solar PV) in 2022 to 12.0 GW (15.4% of total solar PV) in 2036 was obtained. Therefore, this study suggests that it is necessary to consider the size and distribution of residential solar PV net metering in power system planning and operation, as it will play a major role in future power systems in South Korea.