Региональные вариации голосования за «Единую Россию»: роль глав регионов

Abstract

According to the results of the 2016 Duma elections, “United Russia” received 54.2% of the vote under the proportional system. In the regional context, the spread of votes was between 35.19% (in the Altai Territory) and 96.29% (in the Chechen Republic). What causes regional disparities in the vote for the United Russia party? This article aims to find an answer to the above question. In this study, the concept of a regional political machine and the thesis about the ability of regional heads to ensure higher electoral results of the "party in power" are tested. Statistical calculations were performed using binary logistic regression. The regression analysis carried out by the author showed that none of the hypotheses was fully confirmed. Of the six regression models, only three were significant. Each new head of the region in the corps of heads of regional branches of the party added 13% to "United Russia" in the Duma elections in 2011 and 2007. In 2016, an increase in the number of governors in the first places of the regional groups of the federal list of candidates of the "party of power" by 1 unit would lead to an increase in the electoral result by 18%.