Верификация экспериментами моделей скорости движения лесовозов в зависимости от природно-производственных факторов

Abstract

One of the key production parameters of the forest transport process is the speed of movement of timber carriers when removing wood from the upper warehouse. This speed determines the maximum possible volume of prepared and exported wood. Many natural and industrial factors affect the speed of a timber truck. The speed of transport depends on the traffic conditions on the roads, which are significantly complicated by adverse weather events. Scientists have identified laws in changing the speed modes of moving vehicles based on practical observations of individual road sections. To identify the dependence of the speed of a logging truck on 31 factors under consideration, 162 observations were made on measurements of the speed of logging trucks in various natural and industrial conditions. Mathematical models have been developed for calculating the speed of a logging vehicle, taking into account natural and industrial factors. Verification of the obtained nonlinear and wave regression models is the goal of this article. To verify the models, an additional experiment was carried out to compare the calculated models of speed modes of timber carriers with the actual ones. During the experiment, we used data on the speed of a logging truck when transporting wood from the upper warehouse in the cutting area to the raw material warehouse of a wood processing enterprise on the territory of the Yenisei forest district of the Krasnoyarsk territory. The logging road was divided into six sections, each of which was divided into elementary sections by slopes. At each section, the parameters that affect the speed of the timber carrier were determined using previously identified multi-factor equations, and the estimated time of cargo delivery by the timber carrier to the destination was obtained. Comparing the actual travel time with the calculated one based on previously identified equations for a timber truck with cargo on the way from the upper warehouse to the point of wood delivery, it was found that the estimated time of cargo delivery coincides with the actual one with an error of 7 %, and this is an acceptable norm(less than 30 %) for technological processes. Thus, the obtained results of testing multi-factor models can be considered reliable.