Прогнозирование потребности в педагогических кадрах в системе образования на примере Республики Казахстан

Abstract

Amethodology for forecasting the need for teaching staff in the education system is proposed using the example of the Republic of Kazakhstan based on a combination of statistical and analytical approaches. Analysis of forecast results shows an increase in the total number of students in the Republic of Kazakhstan by 400.9 thousand people by 2030, and by 656.5 thousand people by 2040 compared to 2022. The additional need for secondary schools by 2040, according to the main forecast with an accuracy of 95 %, is estimated at 443 schools. Taking into account the reduction of general education schools, which are engaged in several shifts, by 50 % increases the additional need for urban general education schools, according to the main forecast, by 2.5–3 times — up to 1316 schools. The additional need for teaching staff in secondary schools in Kazakhstan is estimated annually from 4.75 to 5.1 thousand people until 2040. The additional need for teaching staff in urban secondary schools is estimated at 5.2 to 5.3 thousand people.