Моделирование пожароопасных отказов электрооборудования и оценка пожарно-электрического вреда

Abstract

Introduction. The development of fire risk modeling methods seems to be a promising direction for improving the information and analytical support of risk-based management in specialized systems aimed at reducing socio-economic losses from fires by minimizing the flow of incidents generated by the main sources of fire risks. The purpose of the study is to develop new approaches to the study of fire risks arising from the operation of electrical equipment, based on the development of the concept of fire and electrical damage, which is a complex characteristic of the totality of factors affecting the level of fire hazard of the operation of electrical appliances. Methods for stochastic modeling of fire hazardous failures of electrical equipment are based on the representation of the generalized operating time as an integral functional from the main operational factors, including factors determined by the quality of the consumed electricity. Results and discussion. Based on cognitive modeling, the possibilities of influencing the reduction of damage from fires in the residential sector for electrical reasons are considered when using means for monitoring the quality of consumed electricity. A general model of fire-dangerous failures of electrical equipment has been constructed, which describes the occurrence of individual components of fire-electrical damage, due to the influence of the quality of consumed electricity on an accelerated decrease in the fire-safe resource and an increase in the generalized operating time. A technique is proposed for estimating the maximum service life of electrical equipment in the residential sector, based on modeling the achievement of an acceptable level of ignition probability for electrical reasons during a given service life, taking into account the dynamics of indicators of the quality of consumed electricity. Conclusions. The model of fire-hazardous failures can be used as the basis for creating experimental methods for determining the terms of fire-safe operation of electrical equipment, taking into account deviations in power quality indicators from the normative ones. When registering power quality indicators, modeling of fire hazardous failures makes it possible to quantify the components of fire and electrical damage. Identification of the processes and mechanisms of the occurrence of individual components of fire and electrical damage is necessary when designing a system of risk-based management of the quality of consumed electricity and substantiating a system of measures aimed at improving the quality of electricity consumed and reducing the fire hazard of electrical appliances. Keywords: operation of electrical equipment, indicators of the quality of electricity, fire-safe resource, fire-electric damage.