Abstract
The main goal of this research is to determine the genesis of heavy precipitation on the Iranian coast of the Caspian Sea, to quantify the contribution of various factors to the formation of such precipitation. An analysis of synoptic fields, satellite data and the results of numerical mesoscale modeling showed that the nature of heavy precipitation in the studied region is substantially mixed. The primary cause of precipitation is synoptic processes, most often the activation of cyclogenesis on the polar front under the condition of the invasion of cold air. However, the contribution of the “lake effect” (which is expressed in large values of heat and moisture fluxes from the Caspian Sea surface) and orography (which initiates the oonvergence of moisture on the windward side of the Elborz Mountains) is large and in average is about 50%. With an increase in the temperature of the surface of the Caspian Sea, which is possible in the climatic conditions of the future, percentage of heavy precipitations increases first.
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