Роль Турции и Китая в системе внешнеэкономических приоритетов России в условиях санкций

Abstract

The introduction of economic sanctions by western countries against Russia has stimulated the process of reorienting Russian trade and economic ties toward neutral partners, particularly to Turkey and China. This study evaluates the extent to which Russian-Turkish cooperation is becoming more significant a factor in neutralizing the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and compares the relative importance of Turkey and China as trade and economic partners for Russia during the sanctions period. The article explores the potential of Russian-Turkish and Russian-Chinese cooperation. China and Turkey play the role of Russia’s key partners in overcoming the negative consequences of sanctions. The authors conclude that since the start of tough sanctions in 2022–2023, Turkey’s role in Russia’s trade policy grew at a faster pace than China’s role in a number of areas of economic cooperation. This was confirmed by the evidence of faster growth rates of trade, and by more active energy and tourist cooperation, and by Turkey’s level of direct investments comparable to the Chinese one. Despite this, China continues to be the most significant economic partner for Russia. The Western pressure on China under the sanctions during 2023–2024, was felt to a lesser extent than against Turkey. This explained why by the end of 2023, the growth rate of China’s trade with Russia rebegan to outpace the growth rate of Russia’s trade with Turkey. Overall, the anti-sanctions nature of trade policy, based mainly on trade rather than on investments could be depicted as not solid enough, and the likelihood of curtailing ties under pressure from Western countries remains high, that is partially confirmed by the change in the latest dynamics of Russia’s trade with Turkey in 2023–24.