СУЧАСНИЙ СТАН ТА ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ РОЗВИТКУ СВІТОВОГО РИНКУ НАФТИ

Abstract

The current state and development trends of the world oil market are determined in the article. The ratings of the main countries by the volume of explored oil reserves and by the volume of oil production are analyzed. Also, the specific weight of the countries in the global distribution of explored oil reserves has been established. The paper focuses attention on a certain inconsistency between the explored volumes of oil and the volumes of production. The main countries by the volume of oil consumption in the world are determined. The dynamics and forecast of world oil exports are presented, and the trend towards the growth of world oil exports is established. An analysis of the dynamics of the price of Brent oil has been carried out, focusing on a certain stabilization and reduction of the price during the year. The author has paid attention to the main factors affecting the world oil market, in particular: the military aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, production volumes and quotas within the framework of OPEC, levels of economic development and economic activity in the main oil exporters and importers, the general global situation of the world oil market. The prospects for the development of the world oil market have been determined. The analysis of the volumes of production and explored oil reserves made it possible to establish the inconsistency of the specified indicators, which is explained by the inconsistency of technological systems and levels of socio-economic development of oil-producing countries. The article forecasted the volume of world oil exports until 2024. Also, it was established that in the next two years the volume of world oil exports would increase, despite the trend towards decarbonization, the transition to alternative energy sources, and the reduction of the volume of emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere. Economic and mathematical method, such as linear regression, was used to make the forecast. Therefore the main factors of influence on the world demand and supply of oil have been assessed; the main risks to the stable functioning of the main segments of the world oil market have been identified. The impact of the main economically developed countries on the world demand for crude oil and the world export of oil and oil products has been established.