Анализ компромисса между точностью и сложностью идентифицированных моделей динамических систем

Abstract

One of the rapidly developing areas of the modern control theory is the identification of systems associated with the construction of mathematical models of systems in the form of a set of mathematical relationships that adequately reflect the basic properties of the system. Symbolic regression methods are becoming more and more popular in the problems of structural-parametric identification of systems based on available observations and experimental data, which allow building regression models in the form of codes of mathematical expressions in a symbolic form. Among the known numerical evolutionary methods of symbolic regression, the universally acknowledged “favorite” is the method of genetic programming”, the application of which allows us to describe the search for solving a problem as the construction of a regression model by enumerating various arbitrary superpositions of functions from some predetermined set. In this case, the important indicators determining the quality of identification of the mathematical model of the system are the accuracy and complexity of the identified model. Often, the system model obtained as a result of solving identification problem is not accurate enough or excessively complex. As a result, the solution to the identification problem is inextricably linked to ensuring sufficient accuracy and simplicity of the identified model. In this connection, it is natural to adhere to the principle of balanced identification, which indicates the search for a compromise between the accuracy of reproduction and the measure of complexity of the identified model. The purpose of this paper, which develops the concept of balanced identification, is to analyze the trade-off between the accuracy and complexity of models of dynamic systems identified by genetic programming. In this paper we introduce a functional "accuracy-complexity", which allows us to balance the trade-off between these key indicators of the identified models when solving the identification problem. The effectiveness of the proposed functional is demonstrated on the example of computer identification by genetic programming of a Lorentz dynamical system.