О ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИИ СТРАХОВОГО РЫНКА РОССИИ И АСТРАХАНСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ

Abstract

Insurance companies, being one of the most important links in the financial system of the country, make a significant contribution to the development of the national economy. Insufficient stability and a low level of dynamics of insurance development are conditioned by poor capitalization of insurance companies and absence of methodological complex, which would allow to create financial strategy with high degree of efficiency. In the Russian Federation today there are 236 insurance companies, of them 61 are in the Astrakhan region. Every year insurance companies cease their activity due to the license revocation. The study of the insurance market of the Astrakhan region and Russia using modern methods of scientific research, including mathematical models, made it possible to establish the relationship of insurance indicators with GDP and GRP. Studying the developing insurance market allowed to infer about the expediency of using the indicator “depth of the insurance market”. The forecast of this indicator until 2020 was based on the consensus forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Development of the insurance market and, consequently, the economy of the region and of the country is affected by many factors. The following indicators were considered as factors: dollar rate, price per gram of gold, MICEX index, central rate of the Central Bank of Russia, and the inflation rate. The constructed multifactorial regression model helped to establish the relationship between the volume of insurance premiums of voluntary insurance, the dollar exchange rate and the level of inflation. The given research algorithm can be used in various fields. The worked out forecast of the parameter of depth of insurance market in the Astrakhan region and Russia proved positive tendency in developing regional and Russian insurance market.