Тенденції, проблеми та перспективи розвитку світової торгівлі в умовах сучасних викликів

Abstract

The proposed article aims to present a comprehensive overview of the problems and prospects of world trade, aimed at understanding the challenges it faces and substantiating the possibilities for its further development in the modern world. It is determined that the EU, China and the USA are the world’s largest exporters of goods. The dynamics of exports and imports of goods and services, the trade balance between the United States and the European Union, foreign trade by sectors of the economy are studied. The milestones of trade policy between the USA and the EU are outlined. The factors of recovery of the world economy after the COVID-19 pandemic are considered. It is substantiated that the full-scale war in Ukraine, the rupture of trade relations between the United States and China and the consequences of Brexit played a significant role in the formation of the main trends in bilateral trade on a global scale. A forecast of the development of world trade is carried out, emphasis is placed on the factors that will have both a positive and a negative impact on its dynamics. In particular, among the factors that will have a positive impact on the development of world trade, the following are allocated: growth in demand for certain types of services; trade and industrial policy reflecting the so-called «green transition» to an environmentally sustainable global economy. This will help increase trade flows of goods and services related to the production of energy-efficient goods and renewable energy sources. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the negative impact of geopolitical factors, including geopolitical tensions in the world and the war in Ukraine, industrial production is expected to slow down, with many economies maintaining relatively high interest rates as a result of ongoing inflationary pressures. The growing level of debt burden of the world’s economies, combined with high interest rates, will continue to have a negative impact on the macroeconomic conditions of many countries, which will lead to an increase in the cost of borrowing, and the policy of internal orientation in large economies may lead to increased restrictive measures in international trade, which will restrain the growth of its volumes.