The Socio-Economic Consequences of the War in Ukraine: the National, Regional, and Global Dimensions

Abstract

The main purpose of the article is to present the main socio-economic consequences of the war in Ukraine from the standpoint of its negative impact on the economy and society on the national (Ukraine), regional (Europe) and global (the world) scale. In this context, the paper presents and compares forecasts of socio-economic development of Ukraine, which were formulated before the war with forecasts taking into account the war, as well as analyzes of disturbances in the socio-economic development of the world, region and state resulting from the war in Ukraine. The conclusions formulated by the authors were developed on the basis of the consequences of the first three months of the war. When a full-scale war was started by Russia on February 24, 2022, the most pessimistic scenarios not only for the economy of Ukraine, Europe and Central Asia but also the world economy in general for the next 3–5 years unfolded. According to various estimates of Ukrainian and international financial institutions, the decline in Ukraine’s real GDP in 2022 could reach 30%–45%, provided that the hostilities do not spread to other regions of Ukraine, and that the country receives continued support from its allies. Any significant changes leading to an improvement or deterioration in the situation will require a verification of the information provided. Nonetheless, regardless of the all the possible scenarios, the war in Ukraine will have the greatest catastrophic socio-economic consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and the world compared to the consequences of all the previous world crises. Therefore, the response of the world community to all the challenges caused by the war in Ukraine must also be adequate, timely and systematic, laying the foundations for the formation of the future world system of financial, food, energy and military security of mankind.