Сучасна динаміка сніголавинних процесів на території гірського масиву Полонина Боржава

Abstract

The article analyzes the current dynamics of avalanche processes in the territory of the Polonyna Borzhava mountain massif, as one of the most avalanche-prone zones of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The studied area is visited by thousands of tourists every year, especially in winter, as ski tourism is quite well developed here. Accordingly, hundreds of tourists face a direct threat to life and health - avalanches. Therefore, first of all, it is worth showing the current dynamics of avalanche processes on Polonyna Borzhava from the point of view of rational management of recreation and tourism. Almost every year, people, both professionals and beginners, are killed or injured in avalanches on Polonyna Borzhava. Knowledge the basics of handling during avalanche danger, obtaining information about the onset of such periods and evaluating changes in the multi-year dynamics of avalanches can minimize risky situations in the mountains. An analysis of avalanche seasons in Polonyna Borzhava during 2011-2020, based on the materials of the Plai avalanche station, the Transcarpathian Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and the Main Department of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Transcarpathian Region, showed that the most avalanche-dangerous month is February, when 40,7% of all avalanches occurred. During the studied period, the most avalanches with a volume of 1001-5000 m3 occurred, which do not cause significant damage to the environment, but can lead to the death or injury of people and animals. The number of avalanches varies greatly from year to year, because in the short term it directly depends on weather conditions (amount of solid precipitation, air temperature of the cold half of the year, wind activity, etc.), and in the long term it depends on climatic changes. During 2011-2020, the most avalanches occurred in 2012 (25), and in 2014 and 2020 they were not recorded at all. Clarification of the average multi-year dates for the formation of stable snow cover showed that it falls on November 21. Taking into account the trends of global warming, shifting of seasons, greater transition of precipitation to the liquid phase, etc., avalanches in Polonyna Borzhava will become a rarer phenomenon with very large annual variability in number and volume. The work uses descriptive and literary research methods, as well as elementary means of mathematical statistics.