Методические основы прогнозирования потоковых процессов контейнерного терминала портовой особой экономической зоны

Abstract

The article touches upon the problem of activating the international transport corridors bypassing Russia, which intensifies competition in the maritime transport market. The Russian Federation government has developed a state policy aimed at strengthening the position of national carriers on the basis of increased development of transport and logistics infrastructure, in particular, in the southern direction of the international transport corridor North – South. One of the mechanisms that allows to implement the state tasks is creating a special economic port zone in the Caspian Sea on the territory of the Astrakhan region, which provides for the modernization of existing high-tech transport and logistics infrastructure facilities and construction of new ones. The study of the geographical and socio-economic state of the Astrakhan region allowed systematizing the prerequisites for the creation of a special economic port zone and identifying the main areas of development: port and transport infrastructure, logistics services, attracting additional cargo flows and intensifying existing ones, integrating them into the international transport corridors. The construction of a new container terminal in the seaport of Olya makes it necessary to predict the volume of container cargo and ship traffic. The use of a combination of forecasting methods (expert assessments and an approximating function) has been justified; a forecasting method has been proposed to clarify the sequence and content of the forecasting stages; the analyses results for 2022-2050 are presented, which allow predicting the cash flows from the project implementation and determining the required amount of loading and unloading equipment, warehouse space and personnel.