Розвиток на ДП «КБ «Південне» моделей оцінювання показників польотної безпеки для випадку аварії ракети на етапі польоту

Abstract

Safety of the up-to-date rocket and space complexes remains a topical problem for the developers of rocket and space technology. The integral component of this problem along with the safety of operations during launch vehicle ground pre-launch processing is organization of flight safety. The basic task of this rocket and space complexes safety component is to prevent or minimize serious consequences in case of launch vehicle failure in the flight leg, after all such accidents can cause damage to the population and facilities (including personnel and facilities of the ground complex), located along the flight paths. It is shown that the flight safety assurance of the launch vehicle is based on the experience of combat missile systems. Flight safety during the launch vehicle launches is provided by laying flight paths through sparsely populated (unpopulated) territories and using special onboard flight safety systems. This system limits the size of impact zones of emergency launch vehicle and its debris by emergency engine shutdown. Recently flight safety process is organized based on the acceptable risk concept. It is based on a risk assessment for the ground-based facilities and people, and it should not exceed the established standards. Such approach requires development and upgrading of the mathematical models of risk assessment in case of launch vehicle failure in the flight phase. Formation of the risk-oriented approach to flight safety in Yuzhnoye SDO is shown. Key moment in this process is to develop the separate structural unit, which started working on rocket and space complexes flight safety assurance and analysis. The basic model for assessing the risks of damage to facilities and people is analyzed, using the maximum impact zone of an emergency launch vehicle, which is realized in case of loss of control and flight safety system activation. The main directions of the basic model improvement are shown, which led to the development of a number of new original models of flight safety assessment in the Yuzhnoye SDO. First of all, the developed models take into account the flight safety system specifics, which are used to equip the launch vehicles, developed by Yuzhnoye SDO: criteria of activation, blocking of the engine emergency shutdown in the initial flight phase and Fe functional. Such models allow to take into account the different nature of emergency situations in the launch vehicle flight phase and ways of their representation, representation of the damage areas of facilities in the form of convex polygons, possible fragmentation of the emergency launch vehicle at the free- fall leg etc. The developed models have found wide application in the practice of assessing flight safety indicators in the Yuzhnoye SDO projects. Key words: launch vehicle; acceptable risk; launch vehicle failure in the flight phase; flight safety system; emergency launch vehicle impact zone; risk of damage to facilities; collection risk.