Современное состояние глобального рынка сжиженного природного газа и перспективы реализации российских арктических СПГ-проектов

Abstract

Transitioning from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources has become a global trend over the past decade. Despite efforts made by the EU, USA, Japan, and several other nations to replace fossil fuels with alternative sources, significant success in this domain remains elusive, with hydrocarbons continuing to dominate the energy landscape. Notably, the share of liquefied natural gas (LNG), once perceived as a weak alternative to pipeline gas, constituted 56 % of the global gas exports by the end of 2022, with the number of consumer countries reaching 47. This study aims to assess the potential capabilities of key LNG suppliers in increasing production and export volumes to meet the growing demand in the global LNG market. A primary focus is placed on evaluating the capabilities and plans of Russian companies to execute large-scale LNG projects. The research employs methods of systems and statistical analysis, along with economic forecasting. The article discusses the key trends in the global LNG market's development and identifies the factors exerting the most significant impact on its trajectory. An analysis of the current long-term program supporting LNG production in Russia is conducted, highlighting the key support measures available to domestic companies. The practical significance of this study lies in identifying countries poised to increase their production volumes and enter the LNG production and export arena within six to seven years. The research pinpoints key large-scale domestic LNG projects set to make the Russian LNG share in the world market grow from 8 % to 15–17 %. Subsequent steps of this research will involve assessing the prospects for selling Russian and American LNG in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) market.