МОДЕЛЬ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ ПО ИССЛЕДОВАНИЮ ПОЖАРОВ НА ОСНОВЕ СЦЕНАРНОГО ПОДХОДА

Abstract

Purpose. Fire investigation is one of the main functions of EMERCOM of Russia. The analysis of activity results of Federal Fire Service forensic institutions based on the current model shows that the point of fire origin is not identified with sufficient accuracy in 63 % of cases, and the fire cause is not unambiguously identified in 74 % of cases. This situation makes it impossible to create an incident information model, to establish cause-and-effect relationships between the phenomena and conditions at a fire scene and also to give the correct legal qualification of the incident. The purpose of the study is to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of fire investigation activities. Methods. The study is based on the theory of system analysis, the theory of functions and the theory of risks. The authors use methods of mathematical modeling and information synthesis, instrumental methods for their support, methods of informatics, expert analysis and combinatorics. Findings. A scenario approach to organize fire investigation activities is proposed. It allows effectively identifying the circumstances of fire occurrence, fire development and negative fire consequences. The problems of the proposed approach are the need to develop a reasonable list of scenarios to be investigated under conditions of information uncertainty and the labour-consuming nature of scenario research, which requires the availability of software and powerful computers. Research application field. The use of the proposed approach will improve the accuracy of determining a fire scenario with severe thermal damage to building structures and interior items caused by fire heat as well as with uneven distribution of fire load in the compartment with the ignition source, taking into account the specific gas exchange in the compartment during a fire and other parameters. Conclusions. The proposed activity model based on the scenario approach, which includes the physical evidence investigation at a fire scene and the results of mathematical modeling of the dynamics of hazardous fire factors, enables to determine the point of fire origin and the cause of the fire and also to establish cause-and-effect relationships between the fire and negative fire consequences with sufficient accuracy.