Математическое моделирование аварийности на автомобильном транспорте в условиях высоких температур окружающей среды

Abstract

The relevance of the study is due to the lack of a systematic theoretical platform that serves to describe the effect of increasing (up to two times) the accident rate on roads in conditions of high ambient temperatures. The development of theoretical foundations capable of describing this phenomenon was the purpose of this work. Research methods: analysis and synthesis, methods of mathematical statistics. The initial data were obtained by expert method and observation of drivers of passenger taxis using the “Wialon – GPS” system/Glonass”. The main results consist in the development of a mathematical model of accidents in road transport at high ambient temperatures. With the help of the constructed model, the influence of climatic installations of various types on the reduction of accidents is determined. These results constitute the scientific novelty of the work. The practical significance of the results is to assess the effectiveness of the developed measures to reduce accidents in the hot season, which should include the organization and control of the use of air conditioners and climate control systems, which can reduce the increase in accidents to 64.1%. The directions of further research are related to the development of algorithmic and instrumental support for reducing the increase in accidents during the organization of traffic in conditions of high ambient temperatures. Recommendations. The results of the research can be recommended to the organizers of passenger and cargo transportation by road, divisions of regional and municipal authorities that have traffic management as their functionality.