Сирийский кризис: история и современная политическая ситуация

Abstract

The article studies main developments, implications and results of the 10 year Syrian crisis. The author pays special attention to the historical preconditions that caused those events in Syria, focusing on actual political, social, economic, ethnic, ideological, regional, and international dimensions of the Syrian crisis based on historical background. The author tries to make some forecasts about further development of the current situation in Syria in view of abilities to peacefully resolve the conflict by political instruments rather than military options. The publication tends to study new tendencies in the Syrian crisis development. The author argues that today the Syrian conflict is developing in a different paradigm that can be tentatively designated as the “post-terrorist” stage in the Syrian uprising. Main attention is paid to Russia’s politics in Syria and its ability to rebuild the main institutions of the Syrian state. Political steps and tendencies of major regional and international players in the Syrian crisis are analysed. In this regard the author supposes and demonstrates in this article that much depends on how Russia, Turkey, Iran, the United States and Israel change the previous agreements on the security system in Syria. The author believes that despite all the complexity of this crisis, peace in Syria is quite possible. A lot depends on political will and the readiness for mutual compromises between key internal and external actors in the Syrian crisis.