주택공급변동성과 준공후미분양 결정 요인 분석*

Abstract

One of the main characteristics of Korean housing supply is that it shows high volatility by repeating the rapid supply spike periodically by increasing the amount of pre-sale apartments. In general, this surge in housing supply was a major burden for the construction industry and the economy. This study demonstrates that if the pre-sale volume increases by 10% this year, the unsold new housing volume after completion will increase from 1.87% to 1.99% in three years. In other words, the increase in volatility in housing supply through a surge in pre-sale volume leads to an increase in unsold new housing volume after completion, and the data confirm the burden on the construction industry. The study also shows that coordination failures can lead to a rapid housing supply surges in the Korean housing market. Therefore, institutional supplementation is needed to prevent such a coordination failure from appearing in the market. This study suggests that the decrease of housing supply volatility and the reduction of unsold new housing after completion will require the increase in the share of construction companies’ equity capital and the gradual implementation of the post-sale housing supply system.