Методичний підхід до прогнозування динаміки розвитку Збройних Сил України з урахуванням достатності та ефективності освоєння виділених фінансових ресурсів

Abstract

One of the important issues of financial and economic forecasting in military affairs is the determination of supporting (optimal) trends in changes in financial and economic parameters (including cost indicators) of the budget expenditures allocated for military construction and the implementation of certain development programs of the armed forces. Forecasting is the first stage of planning. After forecasting, perspective (long-term) planning is carried out, followed by medium-term, current and operational-calendar planning. Planning stages should be oriented not only in time, but also in the planes of the functional and territorial separation of the planning object (Ukrainian Armed Forces). This creates the prerequisites for the development of a methodological approach to forecasting (distribution) of financial resources, taking into account the effectiveness of their development.The aim of the article is to improve the methodological approach to forecasting the dynamics of the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, taking into account the sufficiency and effectiveness of the development of allocated financial resources.When forecasting the dynamics of the level of development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the first step in the methodological approach is the formation of a database of retrospective information indicators, which include: actual and planned results of the implementation of development programs over the past five years, actual and planned indicators of financing the development program of the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the past five years. The next step of the proposed methodological approach is the formation and selection of a functional relationship to describe the process of determining the increase in the level of development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, depending on the indicator of the possible amount of funding.Based on the selected functional dependencies, it is possible to assess the impact of the forecasted economic capabilities of the state on the future state of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Comparison of these estimates and the timing of the development program of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will form the dynamics of development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Application of the presented methodological approach will increase the effectiveness of the development planning of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and substantiate the expected results of the implementation of development programs.