尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力评价及影响因素辨识

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力评价及影响因素辨识 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202202060297 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项项目（XDA20010302） Assessment of socioeconomic-ecological composite system resilience and its influencing factors analysis in Nepal Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:“一带一路”沿线部分国家处于生态环境脆弱、社会经济落后状态，开展社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力时空特征评估及关键要素识，对于实现"一带一路"倡议"走出去"战略和绿色丝路建设至关重要。基于社会发展、经济水平、基础设施建设、生态环境、自然灾害风险5个一级指标24个二级指标构建了社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力评价指标体系，利用主成分分析法和结构方程模型评价了2000-2015年尼泊尔县域尺度社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力并分析了其时空分异特征，厘清了影响社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力的关键因素及其影响机制。结果表明：①尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力在县域尺度上主要集中在中低和中等恢复力水平，而中高恢复力呈由南向北逐渐降低态势，南部地区以及位于中部发展区的首都加德满都河谷地区恢复力水平相对较高；②2000-2015年尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力在不同阶段呈现波动变化状态，2005年恢复力最优，2010和2015年部分区域恢复力降低明显，系统恢复力区域间差异逐步增大；③社会发展、经济水平、基础设施、建设生态环境和自然灾害风险对系统恢复力提升的总效应分别为0.99，0.07，0.11，0.89和-0.12；按照指标影响程度来看，尼泊尔提升恢复力的关键路径主要在于促进社会经济发展、改善生态环境、推动基础设施建设以及降低灾害风险。未来尼泊尔应依托"一带一路"建设平台加强与周边国家合作交流，提升社会保障与区域均衡发展，促进产业升级及积累资本，发展生态林业并加强灾害监测及决策支持系统建设，实现社会、经济和生态的协同与可持续发展。 Abstract:In the face of multiple crises and challenges brought by global change and intensified human activities, how to cope with various risks and maintain system resilience has become one of the important issues of regional sustainable development. The One Belt and One Road initiative is international economic cooperation initiative put forward by China, which aims to promote economic globalization and win-win international cooperation. While, some countries along the One Belt and One Road are in a fragile ecological environment and backward in social and economic development, such as Nepal whose socioeconomic-ecological composite system has potential low risk resistance characteristics. It is crucial to evaluate the spatiotemporal characteristics of the socioeconomic-ecological composite system resilience of typical countries and identify the key factors for the implementation of the "Go Global" strategy and the Green Silk Road construction. Taking Nepal as case study area, an index system for evaluating the resilience of the socioeconomic-ecological composite system was constructed based on five first-level indicators and 24 second-level indicators from the perspectives of social development, economic level, infrastructure construction, ecological environment, and the natural disaster risk. Then, based on principal component analysis and structural equation model, this paper evaluated the resilience of socioeconomic-ecological composite system at county-level in Nepal from 2000 to 2015, analyzed its temporal and spatial variation characteristics, and clarified the key factors influencing the resilience and its influencing mechanism. The results showed that at the county level, the resilience of the socioeconomic-ecological composite system in Nepal was mainly concentrated at the low and medium levels, while the resilience of the middle and high levels gradually decreased from south to north, and the resilience of the southern region and the Capital Kathmandu Valley in the central development zone was relatively high. In addition, from 2000 to 2015, the resilience of socioeconomic-ecological composite system in Nepal fluctuated and showed spatial differences at different stages. The resilience was the highest in 2005, and decreased significantly in some regions in 2010 and 2015, and the regional differences of the system resilience increased gradually. Moreover, the total effects of social development, economic level, infrastructure construction, ecological environment and natural disaster risk on resilience improvement were 0.99, 0.07, 0.11, 0.89 and -0.12, respectively. According to the effect degree of the factors, the key path to enhance Nepal's resilience mainly lay in promoting social and economic development, improving the ecological environment, promoting infrastructure construction and reducing disaster risk. In the future, Nepal should rely on the "One Belt and One Road Initiative" construction platform to strengthen cooperation and exchanges with neighboring countries, improve social security and the balanced regional development, promote industrial upgrading and capital accumulation, develop ecological forestry, strengthen disaster monitoring and decision support system construction, and realize social, economic and ecological coordination and sustainable development. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献