Риск-ориентированная модель обоснования ресурсов подразделений добровольной пожарной охраны в отдаленных сельских поселениях

Abstract

Предложена математическая модель для обоснования необходимости создания и технической оснащенности подразделений добровольной пожарной охраны в отдаленных населенных пунктах сельской местности. Субъекты Российской Федерации проранжированы в зависимости от значения риска причинения вреда (ущерба) в результате пожара. Предложены параметры ресурсной потребности подразделений добровольной пожарной охраны в отдаленных сельских поселениях. In the existing literature there are no mathematical models for determining the risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires in buildings to justify the resources of operational units of voluntary fire service in remote rural settlements (settlements in which the arrival time of the first fire protection unit for a fire exceeds 20 minutes). The authors have developed and tested a mathematical model to determine the risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires in buildings, both on the territory of the subjects of the Russian Federation and on the territory of remote rural settlements. To calculate the risk, the dependences of the number of fatalities and injured people in a fire, as well as material damage from fires, depending on the time of arrival of the first fire department to extinguish the fire were obtained. The rating of the subjects of the Russian Federation is calculated depending on the calculated value of the risk of causing harm as a result of fires in buildings on the territory of the corresponding subject of the Russian Federation. A method is proposed for determining the type, number and resource equipment of operational units of voluntary fire service (voluntary fire brigade or voluntary fire group) in remote rural settlements, depending on the population in the settlement and the level of fire danger of the rural settlement. An example of substantiation of the type, number and technical equipment of operational units of voluntary fire service in remote rural settlements of one of the subjects of the Russian Federation is given. At the same time, rural settlements are distributed by fire hazard levels depending on the ratio of the risks of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires in buildings on the territory of a rural settlement and the corresponding subject of the Russian Federation. It is established that the justification of the type, number and technical equipment of operational units of voluntary fire service in remote rural settlements significantly depends on the objectivity of statistical information about fires and the number of buildings on the territory of each subject