ПЕРЕВІРКА ГІПОТЕЗИ ПРО НОРМАЛЬНИЙ ЗАКОН РОЗПОДІЛУ КІЛЬКОСТІ НАДЗВИЧАЙНИХ СИТУАЦІЙ ПРИРОДНОГО ХАРАКТЕРУ НА ТЕРИТОРІЇ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

Warning and prevention of natural emergencies is based on the analysis and forecasting of threats of emergency situations in the state. At the same time, the forecasting of natural emergencies should be aimed at regulating natural safety in the country, assessing the threats of emergencies and their prevention. Prevention of natural emergencies of various natures, minimization of their consequences is a component of creating safe conditions for the individual and society as a whole, an integral part of the state policy of national security of the country. Ensuring safety in emergency situations requires reliable functioning of the emergency response system adequate to the level and nature of threats. The effectiveness of planning and implementing measures to prevent natural emergencies is determined by the quality of forecasting the threats of their occurrence Since the processes of occurrence of natural emergencies are of a random nature, knowledge of the law of distribution of the random variable “number of emergencies” in the state on the basis of statistical data acquires importance. The article presents the results of checking the compliance of statistical data on natural emergencies in the state with the normal distribution law. Based on the processing and analysis of monitoring data for natural emergencies, a hypothesis was put forward about the normal law of distribution of the random variable the «number of natural emergencies» in the state in accordance with the available information. Pearson’s goodness-of-fit test was chosen to test the proposed hypotheses. An assessment was made in accordance with the chosen criterion of the hypothesis about the agreement of the sample distribution with the law of normal distribution. Asa result of the research, it was found that the hypothesis put forward does not contradict the statistical data of monitoring natural emergencies over a certain period of time. The parameters of the established distribution law were evaluated.