УСТОЙЧИВОСТЬ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ДИНАМИКИ: СИСТЕМА ПОКАЗАТЕЛЕЙ И МЕТОДИКА ОЦЕНКИ

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Within the framework of integration formations, various countries show excellent macroeconomic dynamics, which in theory should be determined by the form of integration, economic union, but also depends on many other factors and conditions associated with a particular country. Thus, the standard comparison of the dynamics according to the indicators chosen for that becomes insufficient, because of difference in the quality of that dynamics which revealng is useful from the point of view of the further development of the economic Union of countries. Thereby the purpose of the study is the formation and application of a methodology for assessing the stability of macroeconomic dynamics, measured by the rate of GDP growth using the example of the Eurasian Economic Union countries. The research methodology is an empirical and structural analysis, a method for constructing phase portraits by F. Takens, which allows defining the degree of stability of dynamics on a selected time interval by the properties of an attractor. The method is a step in the algorithm of the proposed methodology for assessing the stability of macroeconomic dynamics. In addition, the author proposes the minimum necessary system of indicators required to characterize the development of the countries – members of the Eurasian Economic Union. The result of the study in the applied sense was an assessment of the stability of macroeconomic dynamics by the GDP growth rate of the Eurasian Union countries, a comparative analysis of the dynamics. The use of the sustainability assessment methodology allows it to be included in the classic version of the macroeconomic analysis of economic development, having obtained conclusions regarding the sustainability of growth, with the prospect of determining the factors that ensure such dynamics, as well as the economic policy instruments that can affect the dynamics of GDP by its components and sectors in order to improve the sustainability of growth. Of the countries of the Eurasian Union, only Kazakhstan shows a positive growth rate over the entire time interval, although its fluctuations are quite significant. The assessment of stability naturally leads to the elucidation of the reasons for the differences in that parameter of dynamics, which is a promising scientific problem that requires its solution.