Волны Кондратьева и технологические уклады в экономике Австралии

Abstract

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to determine the time of beginning of Kondratieff waves and origin of new technological modes and their productivity. The regression analysis of the time series of Australia real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 allowed to determine the date of beginning of the third, fourth and fifth half-waves of Kondratieff cycles and the date of origin of the fourth, fifth and sixth technological modes in Australia`s economy. The results of the analysis showed that the origin of the fourth technological mode in Australia`s economy occurred in the late XIX century, the fifth — in the 1950s, the sixth — in the late XX century. The modeling of technological modes` productivity allowed determining the productivity of relict and modern technological modes in the economy of Australia. The results showed that the productivity of relict modes in Australia`s economy is 3465 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the fourth mode is 4437 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990, the fifth — 8874 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The maximum productivity of the sixth mode in the economy of Australia is 26 888 Gehry-Hemis dollars 1990. The results of the research may be used in order to evaluate the productivity of modern technological modes in Russian economy.