Abstract
Total cost of ownership (TCO) accounting is a brand new optimization process aimed at gaining overall investment and maintenance benefit which is being first applied in Transneft to vehicles and heavy equipment. Commonly fleet renewal and model choice decisions are built on outdated technical standards, personal experience or declared properties, however such way cannot provide an objective result in a modern condition of engineering. IT development in vehicles and heavy equipment monitoring allows accumulating primary data on the operation of each technical unit. Transneft has worked out the methodology of AV annual TCO calculating and analysis to describe the procedure and methods of applying the primary data to AV annual TCO calculating, optimal equipment lifetime determination and models comparison. The authors of this paper have developed the methodology based on the identification of primary data correspondence to different intervals of the same model lifetime using a Big data logic and further operating cash flow long-term forecasting for each model. Forecasting process is selected between averaging, linear extrapolation and probabilistic model based on reliability theory methods. AV annual TCO is calculated by applying equivalent annual annuity to the overall lifetime cash flow. Optimal equipment lifetime is calculated in correspondence to the minimum AV annual TCO. Models are compared by the AV annual TCO corresponded to optimal equipment lifetime. AV annual TCO calculating and analysis provides a whole new level of optimal equipment lifetime determination based on overall investment and maintenance benefit and models overall lifetime costs comparison. Thus we have a mathematical founded answer to the questions «How often to renew the fleet?» and «Which model to choose?».
Published Version
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