ТЕРРИТОРИАЛЬНОЕ ПЛАНИРОВАНИЕ И ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ КАВМИНВОДСКОЙ ГОРОДСКОЙ АГЛОМЕРАЦИИ

Abstract

The article discusses the experience of studying the demographic development of the Kavminvodskaya urban agglomeration and its territorial planning taking into account intra-agglomeration differences. The data of official statistics, population censuses, and territorial planning materials are analyzed. The paper provides a historical sketch of the formation of the urban settlements network and the development of links between them, which serves as a basis for understanding the structural features and current trends in the development of the agglomeration. We conducted a detailed study of the regulatory framework containing documents of strategic and territorial planning at the regional and municipal levels. The documents were studied in terms of the agglomeration development management, from the perspective of cities, districts and areas. A comparative analysis of demographic development showed the asynchrony and spatial asymmetry of all its parameters. Population growth, migration, and natural reproduction processes within the constituent elements of the agglomeration system occur differently, with changes in their pace and direction in different years. The greatest contrasts have been revealed between the core cities of the first and second order, suburban settlements, and peripheral areas. The population growth in the agglomeration occurs almost exclusively due to international and intraregional migration, which, to some extent, compensates for the interregional outflow of population. There is noted an increasing population decline, the main factors of which are the aging of population, the transformation of traditional ethno-cultural characteristics under the influence of urbanization, and, in recent years, the spread of the coronavirus infection. The conducted medium-term forecast demonstrates a downward trend of slow agglomeration growth.