Применение модели Хассела для прогнозирования плотности популяции золотистой картофельной нематоды после выращивания глободероустойчивого сорта картофеля

Abstract

The purpose of the research is evaluation the possibility of application the Hassell model for prediction the dynamics of population density of golden nematode of potato in the ground after growing Globodera resistant variety of potato in the single-crop. Materials and methods . For the research database of population density of golden nematode of potato (amount of ootids and larvae) was used on the three plots where amenable varieties of potato were grown and one plot where Globodera resistant variety of potato Kardinal was grown in the Kaluga Region within 14 years (1979–1993). Non-linear least-squares method which is the version of least-squares method for non-linear systems was used as the method for evaluation the model parameters. Toolset of search for solution in the program Excel was used for analysis. Results and discussion . Hassell model for prediction the dynamics of population density of golden nematode of potato in the ground after growing Globodera resistant variety of potato in the single-crop demonstrated high confidence. (R 2 = 0.94). Based on the Hassell model for development golden nematode of potato population in plot soil with growing nematode resistant variety modeling of introduction of Globodera resistant variety was conducted for different initial amount of golden nematode of potato and different levels of fertility of soil: low, average, high. Hassell model has confirmed that it is the most multifunctional in the category of discrete one-period models for prediction dynamics of population density of golden nematode of potato in the ground and permits to predict the amount of golden nematode of potato for agrobiocenosis with single-crop of potato of amenable and Globodera resistant varieties.