Моделирование систем арктического морского транспорта: основы междисциплинарного подхода и опыт практических работ

Abstract

Development of new offshore projects in the Arctic begins with comprehensive analysis of Marine Transport System’s (MTS) performance. At the same time researchers with different professional orientation (shipbuilders, logisticians, economists and managers etc.) are often have narrow view while making their investigations of MTS, focusing mostly at corresponding familiar sides of the system. It leads to specific “disproportional” description of MTS’s when some components considered in detail but other are out of investigation that in some cases may result in inaccurate conclusions. This makes authors sure that the only proper approach to investigate complex arctic MTS should be multidisciplinary. Article contains the description of integrated R&D project fulfilled at State Krylov Research Centre and devoted to realization of multidisciplinary methodology and corresponding software for arctic MTS design and analysis. Integrated software solution is based on object-oriented paradigm and combines such scientific areas as geographic information systems (GIS), shipbuilding disciplines, discrete event and agent-based simulation models. Theoretical base of the solution and its architecture envelops the following subject fields: ship design and fleet sizing, resistance and propulsion of ships including ice-going capabilities, vessel routing in ice, scheduling, downstream and upstream logistics, navigation process simulation, environment conditions stochastic modeling, operation research, queue theory, economy and management. Software has a modular structure with open and expansible architecture, which makes possible to add new functionality and upgrade existing program blocks in accordance with demands of specific project. Simulation model serve as the center of multidisciplinary integration because this technology allows reproducing behavior of different objects of MTS under dynamic conditions. Realized in AnyLogic ® framework simulation model replicates vessel operation process according to individual schedule generated by special planning component. Vessel’s activities simulated in modeled time with consideration of special aspects of operational planning and resolving accidents. Main model also includes specialized sub-models that provide opportunity to describe many local dynamic essences such as processes of offshore drilling and production, freeze-up of channel in fast ice, different ship interaction aspects, “weather windows” in ports etc. Number of instances are also given in the article, they allows to conclude that adequate and consistent model of MTS working in heavy ice-conditions or having complex organization scheme could be obtained only by means of simulation modeling under multidiscipline approach.