Методичний підхід до розрахунку вартості дослідно-конструкторських ро-біт зі створення космічних апаратів

Abstract

The aim of this work is to develop a methodological approach to the development of a unified, common for all developers, computer-aided branch procedure for spacecraft development cost estimation based on a spacecraft cost model and practical recommendations on computer-aided branch procedure development. The cost parameters of the development, manufacturing, and operation of new spacecraft and their technical level (perfection) are the determining factors in competitiveness assessment. To decide on the advisability of starting or resuming the development of a new spacecraft, one has to correctly estimate the development cost. Using the standardized calculation method in estimating the development cost for new space hardware is unacceptable for lack of bug-free design and production documentation, which is the end product of any development activity. Parametric methods (the basic methods used to estimate the spacecraft development cost in the USA and Europe) cannot be used in the development of a high-quality procedure for spacecraft development cost estimation for lack of a branch statistical database on spacecraft development labor intensiveness and materials consumption at the State Space Agency of Ukraine. This calls for a nonstandard cost model of spacecraft development. The authors’ cost model is based on a method of componentwise analogy for simple spacecraft components, moving (up and down) along the edges of a weighted oriented tree graph that models the spacecraft technical structure, and fuzzy analysis methods. The tree graph Gi(V(С),D) models the spacecraft technical structure (V, C, and D are the sets of graph vertices and edges and spacecraft components, respectively; to each graph vertex there corresponds a spacecraft component). The paper presents a nonstandard cost model of spacecraft development, which in its essence is close to a nonlinear parametric cost model, and a scientific methodology for the development of an advanced branch procedure for spacecraft development cost calculation with component and stage detailing.