주택 매매가격과 전세가격 간의 비대칭적 연관관계

Abstract

The asymmetric relationship between the sale price and the Jeonse price in the housing market was examined in this study. When the sale(Jeonse) price increases compared to when it decreases, would not the impact on the Jeonse(sale) price be different? It started with the question. Analysis was performed using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds test, which satisfies the purpose of this study. By applying the component decomposition method suggested by Hatemi-J and El-Khatib(2016), the positive and negative impacts were separated. To compare regional differences, data from 15 regions as well as the whole country were used. The most noteworthy thing from the analysis results is that, at least in the short term, the effect on the Jeonse price is bigger when the sale price decreases than when it increases, and the effect on the sale price is greater when the Jeonse price increases than when it decreases. This would be consistent with the rational actions of market participants to avoid negative-gap investments or Jeonse price reversal. On the other hand, in long-term relationships, it is estimated that the sale price leads the Jeonse price, and indirectly supports the theory of substitute goods. The findings of this study may be helpful in formulating supply and demand strategies for policy makers as well as in predicting future housing prices and deciding when to buy or sell a home.