МАТЕМАТИЧНІ МЕТОДИ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ТА ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ РИНКУ ПРАЦІ

Abstract

The labor market is a dynamic system that requires constant monitoring and analysis. To determine the vector of activity of subjects of the labor market and information about market conditions, the need for modeling and forecasting key indicators of the labor market increases. No less important is the methodological collection, analysis and comparison of information related to the functioning of the labor market, forecasting and planning of market activities for further decision-making in management. In modern publications on economics, devoted to the analysis of the labor market, not enough attention is paid to studies that generally cover all methods of economic and mathematical modeling and management of the labor market. Most often, there are scientific works that are related only to control in a specific plane, where one or several methods are applied simultaneously. The publication highlights the main areas of labor market research and methods of economic and mathematical modeling, which are advisable to use in describing the state and dynamics of the sphere of labor relations. The main principles of economic and mathematical modeling in assessing the development of the labor market are highlighted: the consistency of forecasting, the correspondence of forecasting to modern scientific research, the adequacy of forecasts to real processes, the scenario nature of forecasts. The characteristics of economic, mathematical and statistical methods and models that can be used to manage the labor market are given. The paper presents a brief description and the possibility of applying in labor market research such methods as: the system analysis method, aggregate indexing, the indicative method, the comparison method, the assessment of external and internal factors, statistical methods based on the calculation of the standard deviation, variance, correlation coefficients and variations, statistical multivariate analysis, balance models, trend and time series analysis, correlation and regression analysis, simulation modeling, neural networks, sociological research, the method of expert estimates and others. The main software packages for the automation of the above methods are also systematized.