전국 주택구매력지수(HAI)의 변화가 지방 주택매매시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study analyzed the effect of changes in the national housing purchasing power index on the local housing sales market, which is recognized as a heterogeneous market with the metropolitan area. The analysis method used the Vector Error Correction Model in consideration of the time-series observation characteristics of the main variables of this study. The summary and implications of this study are as follows.
 First, if housing prices in the metropolitan area soar and housing investors' investment capacity in the metropolitan area decreases, it is estimated that they are interested in the local housing market with relatively high price benefits. In particular, the effect of the change in housing purchasing power is expected to occur mainly in the housing market in local hub cities. Second, it can be seen that the local housing market is most affected by income increase through economic growth in the long run. Third, the total population of Jeollabuk-do is expected to gradually flow out due to the concentration of the economy in the metropolitan area, and the trend of aging is expected to increase rapidly. However, Jeonju, a hub city, is expected to show a significant difference in the housing sales market depending on regional characteristics, such as the continuous influx of population. Finally, unlike the results of a study conducted on the housing market in the Seoul metropolitan area, changes in major macroeconomic variables such as interest rates excluding economic growth did not have a significant effect. This result is judged to be because local housing prices have a very low price level compared to the metropolitan area, so the merit as investment goods or inflation hedging is not high.