주택조세강화가 수도권 아파트 가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

In this study, the effect of the recently strengthened heavy taxation of capital gains tax and comprehensive real estate tax on the apartment market in the metropolitan area was analyzed using the vector error correction model. As a result of the shock response analysis, the volume of apartment sales transactions in the Seoul metropolitan area had the greatest impact on the apartment sales price index, followed by mortgage loans in the Seoul metropolitan area and GDP. On the other hand, it was found that there was no significant shock reaction to the heavy capital gains tax and the heavy comprehensive real estate tax. However, most parallaxes show negative (-) values, indicating that they negatively affect apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area. As a result, it can be seen that the apartment market in the metropolitan area is generally affected by changes in the housing tax system, such as heavy capital gains tax and heavy comprehensive real estate tax, along with housing finance, supply, and macroeconomic factors. As a result of this analysis, the housing-related tax strengthening policy can contribute to stabilizing the housing market by lowering housing prices during the rapid rise in housing prices. However, the tax strengthening policy during the period of falling housing prices due to the economic recession can cause a sharp downturn in the housing market.