Abstract
The steady growth of the Russian economy in 2023 is associated with a significant risk of a subsequent slowdown in macrodynamics in 2024 as it exits the overheating state. Signs of such a heterogeneous slowdown became noticeable in the autumn. In the context of continuing strong inflationary pressures, additional strengthening of monetary rigidity is possible, which will be balanced by the expansion of fiscal stimulus and active measures to overcome structural constraints on potential output. In 2024, adjustments to the parameters set out in the federal budget law are likely. The choice of specific solutions for the complementarities of monetary, fiscal and structural policies will be influenced by the trajectory of the ruble exchange rate and the intensity of fragmentation of the global economy. As a result, in 2024, the Russian economy will go through a fork in the road, when the trajectory of the next years will depend on the content of the actions of regulators and the level of their synergy.
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