都市火災拡大の一次元離散型確率モデル : 都市火災拡大の確率論的分析研究 その1

Abstract

The aim of this study is to make the probabilistic aspects of the fire-spread on an urban area clear by building some stochastic models and analyzing these models theoretically instead of using computer simulation. In order to understand basic mathematical properties of the stochastic fire-spread model for an urban area, one-dimensional discrete space model, in which each sub-area noted by integer i is connected with an adjunctive sub-area i+1 at the righ hand and an adjunctive sub-area i-1 at the left, is built and the fundamental formula expressing the behaviour of the probability of burning at each sub-area is obtained. Nextly, the modified model in which the parameters in the fundamental formula is spatially homogeneous and time-constant is redefined. Through mathematical consideration on this model, three propositions are obtained. These suggest some basic principles on the planning for preventing the urban fire spread.