資源進化論―エネルギー資源の変遷・現状と未来予測―

Abstract

The endowment, resources, reserves and production capacity of oil are estimated by global oil generation, field size distribution, discovery process and decline curve analyses. The historical fluctuation of oil price is almost explained by the excess production capacity over actual consumption, which is verified by the vector autoregression analysis. These results combined with economics described by energy consumption lead to a construction of an endogenous dynamic model, which successfully replicates the historical cyclic fluctuation of production and price, and can be used to analyze the evolution of energy resources.