Testing the Quality of Forecasting Using the Theils U Statistics for Forecasting the Production Capacity of Crude Oil in Iraq Until 2033

Abstract

Since 2004, Iraq has been living on crude oil revenues in financing economic activities, which made it captive to the fluctuations of the global oil market, which has mortgaged the capacity of the macroeconomic Iraqi at the threshold of crude oil production capacity, at a time when Iraq is losing its local economic efforts in harnessing crude oil to its advantage, especially since All exploration, investigation, exploration and other works are carried out with foreign efforts. The research sheds light on the production capacity of crude oil in Iraq until the year 2033 in order to review what the production capacity of crude oil will lead to after the entry into force of the global climate agreement. Which constitutes a new challenge for the Iraqi economy. The research assumes that the decline in the production capacity of crude oil after 2030 could be a motive for abandoning the heavy dependence on crude oil in financing the Iraqi economy. Several advanced statistical techniques were used in order to reach the accuracy of the required statistical predictions according to the (Theils U) statistic, and predictions were made inside in order to verify the predictive power of the approved statistical models, the data used for the period (2005-2019), the research found (survival of Iraq is a large producer and exporter of crude oil until the year 2033), the research recommended (investment in the oil sector in order to develop local production and diversify the national economy).