“Новая нормальность” китайской экономики

Abstract

China’s economic growth has decelerated substantially in recent years. This state of affairs is described by Chinese economic researchers as a "new normal". Furthermore, such a definition has also been put forward by the officials as an ideological concept, and in that sense the "new normal" means not just the current situation, but also a prospective path of development. New structural trends do appear in China’s economy. But, by and large, macro-trends kept worsening in 2014- 2015. Industrial production grew by a diminishing margin, and its expansion pace was roughly the same as in the period of the global crisis in late 2008-2009. Sales at the real estate market plummeted, and the prospects of recovery are still unclear. The CPI has been touching a deflationary threshold, reflecting a relative sluggishness of the aggregate demand. Monetary policy turned toward a relaxation with a sequential cause of interest rates and reserve ratios going down. But the possibilities of a further monetary softening are limited because of a high leverage both at the corporate and parastatal sectors, and of a huge overcapacity in the various branches of manufacturing. Nevertheless, hard landing is unlikely to happen in the nearest future. Growth may sustain due not only to the monetary stimuli, but also to new institutional reforms. China’s economy is really rebalancing in favor of services, and that process leads to a fast creation of jobs, which, in its turn, assists a consumer demand’s expansion. Such a shift is promoted with the new tax reform carried out newly in the service sector. The investment demand has been weakening, not least because of the government’s efforts to curb the shadow banking activities and to deleverage at the regional and municipal levels. But, at the same time, a huge amount of new businesses has been established as a result of the minimum capital requirements liberalization. The concept of a "mixed ownership" pioneered by the top state leaders actually implies a new phase of privatization. Public-private partnership is being installed in the number of infrastructural industries. A wave of new reforms is also prevailing at the banking and equity markets. The government assists the Chinese companies' entry into foreign markets with additional export promotion policies and the "Go Out" investment drive.