Abstract
Objective of the study is to analyze the interrelationships of structural changes in the ethnosystem with the appearance of new emergent properties in the process of ethnogenesis. The methodological basis of the research is based on the conceptual provisions of the synergetic scientific direction, including modeling methods, principles of the theory of self-organization, nonlinear thinking using bifurcation, dissipative and other development models. Research results. It is shown that with a quasi-equilibrium state of the ethnic system, it is possible to track changes in the ethnic structure, predict its new emergent properties and development prospects. A theoretical description of the process of new qualities of the ethnosystem’s formation after the bifurcation point is impossible. Prospects of the study. The application of synergetic methods to the analysis of ethnogenesis processes will allow modeling the spectrum of possible trajectories of the ethnosystem development in order to design social management strategies aimed at minimizing the losses of the ethnosystem in a state of catastrophe.
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