Abstract
Abstract - As the petroleum products produced from the Oil refi nery industry (ORI), a national key industry in Korea, are supplied to other industries as an intermediate g oods, the supply shortage of ORI has a large impact on the national economy. This paper attempts to an alyze the supply shortage effects which are defined as the negative impact of one won of supply failure in the ORI on the production of other industries. To this end, an inter-industry analysis using an in put-output (I-O) table describing inter-industry flow of intermediate goods is applied. More concretely, the sup ply-driven model is employed over the period 1990-2012. In addition, the results are compared with th ose for shipbuilding, semiconductor, and steel industries. The results show that the supply shortage eff ects are computed to be 0.9205 won when using 2012 I-O table. More specifically, the supply shortage ef fects on chemical products and transportation industries are computed to be 0.2113 and 0.1140, which are rela tively large, The supply shortage effect of ORI is smaller than that of steel industry (1.4131 won), but larger than that of shipbuilding industry (0.0586 won) and that of semiconductor industry (0.1111 won).
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