Фискальные мультипликаторы в России

Abstract

The paper covers theoretical and practical issues related to estimation of fiscal multipliers for the Russian economy that measure the response of output to the discretionary change in fiscal indicators. Analysis of the main determinants affecting the size of multipliers suggests relatively low values of fiscal multipliers in Russia. By means of a Structural Bayesian Autoregressive Model we obtain the multiplier for the overall government revenue and spending equal to -0,75 and 0,28 correspondingly, i.e. an increase in government revenue (spending) by 1 per cent of GDP leads to a decrease (increase) in output by 0,75 (0,28) per cent. In the case of government spending shock the maximum effect on output is in the subsequent quarter after the shock, while in the case of revenue shock the effect builds up quarter by quarter and reaches its peak in the eighth quarter. The results obtained are generally in line with the expectations as well as with the results available for the emerging market economies. Fiscal consolidation scheduled for the medium-term is expected to have negative impact on the output growth. However, since it is intended to be carried out mainly at the expense of the expenditure part of the budget, this should be less harmful for economic growth and could promote the efficiency of public spending.