통화정책과 금융여건을 고려한 한국의 잠재GDP 추정

Abstract

The policies of central banks, financial conditions, and economic fluctuations are not entirely independent; nevertheless, the conventional method for estimating potential GDP has the convenience of considering supply or real factors independently, potentially leading to biases in estimating the GDP gap that represents economic fluctuations. In this paper, we estimate potential GDP using a multivariate filtering approach that incorporates monetary policy and financial conditions during the period from 1996 to 2011. According to the estimation results, the level of potential GDP during the years 2003 to 2005 experienced a significant decline, and the GDP gap was observed to have a positive value. Despite this, expansionary economic policies were predominantly implemented during that time, which can be attributed to the limitations of the conventional method for estimating potential GDP. The findings of this study hold implications for future monetary policy formulation.