ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ДИНАМІКИ ЗАХВОРЮВАНОСТІ НА COVID-19 В УКРАЇНІ ПІД ЧАС ВІЙСЬКОВОГО СТАНУ

Abstract

COVID-19 has seriously affected various aspects of our lives, and above all the health of people around the world. The high level of transmission and so far, the lack of effective therapeutic agents have challenged all mankind. COVID-19 is an infectious disease that was first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, after which the virus quickly spread around the world. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an international public health emergency outbreak, and on March 11, 2020, a global pandemic. Compared to other acute respiratory diseases, such as SARS or MERS, COVID-19 is spreading faster due to increased globalization. According to reports of the first 40 cases of COVID-19, the majority of infected patients (73%) were males, and less than half (i.e., 32%) had comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular diseases. It is also reported that the average age of patients was 49 years. The mortality rate in this group was almost 2%. In Ukraine, the first cases date back to March 3, 2020. Since the beginning of the epidemic in Ukraine, the average mortality rate was almost 3.5%, and the average age of patients was 41 years. On the night of February 24, 2022, after the Russian leader addressed his citizens, Russia launched a large-scale offensive on the territory of Ukraine. Martial law was declared by presidential decree at 05:30 on the same day throughout the controlled territory of Ukraine. Following the declaration of martial law, most businesses, food and entertainment establishments were forced to suspend operations due to the threat of airstrikes. Educational institutions of various levels were forced to close on vacation, and later open only for distance learning to prevent the accumulation of large masses of people in one place. As for the incidence statistics for COVID-19, at the beginning of the war, they didn't update at all or were limited updated. Therefore, it is now very important to know what the dynamics of the disease should be expected. To study these dynamics, we will use the SIR model, based on the results of which it will be possible to forecast what to expect from COVID-19.