ВОЛНЫ КОНДРАТЬЕВА И СОВРЕМЕННАЯ МАКРОЭКОНОМИКА

Abstract

This article continues the study of the reasons for the negative attitude of the mainstream to N.D. Kondratiev’s long wave (K-wave) theory, which the authors began in 2022. The authors disagree with D. Romer’s statement attributing the K-wave problem to output dynamics. This is an incorrect statement; Kondratiev specifically stated that he studied K-waves of prices, wages, etc., but not output such as GDP. Using the earlier hypothesis that K-waves manifest themselves through technical and economic indicators (for example, through capital intensity), reflecting the change in technological modes, but at the same time there is a system of countercyclical value indicators aimed at removing the negative consequences of changing technological modes, the authors conducted a series of calculations on models of shifting modes of reproduction. The purpose of the calculations: to determine the model trajectories of GDP and inflation arising from the interaction of these two types of indicators, and then to compare the model trajectories with statistical ones and, on this basis, to assess how important it is to consider the K-waves phenomenon in macromodels. The peculiarity of the calculations is that both types of indicators are introduced into the SMR model based on US statistics for the period 1946-2019. It was taken into account that capital intensity can be represented by two options: 1. statistically significant sinusoidal approximation (that is, K-waves), 2. linear approximation. Сalculations showed that the trajectories of model GDP and inflation are noticeably closer to the trajectories of statistical GDP and inflation with K-wave dynamics of capital intensity, than with its linear approximation. This means that abstraction from the K-wave dynamics of capital intensity can distort the results of macroeconomic calculations and obviously worsens the quality of forecasts. The scientific significance of this result is that, first, it indicates the real possibility of using the K-waves phenomenon in macro analysis, and second, highlights the fact that this “real possibility“ can be successfully implemented using the heterodox model of shifting mode of reproduction. Since the macroeconomic mainstream ignores K-waves, heterodox economic theory (which recognizes K-waves) gains a marked advantage over its orthodox competitor.