СОЦІАЛЬНІ РИЗИКИ БЕЗПЕКОВОГО РОЗВИТКУ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

The article is devoted to the research of the risk assessment in the system of ensuring the countries’ secure development. The author proposed a methodical approach to risk assessment, that is based on the developed algorithm for quantitative risk level assessment. The algorithm includes six stages: analysis and formation of risk indicators system; indicators evaluation from the standpoint of security risks (threats) identification; determination of the analysis period, formation of the data sample; assessment of the intensity of changes in indicators; determination of the risk level by indicators; calculation of the integrated risk level. The result is a calculated assessment of the quantitative integrated risk indicator (score and relative) and determination of its level according to the proposed scale (absent, low, moderate, high, very high). The article contains the results of the practical approbation of the proposed algorithm on the example of assessing the social security risks of the economic development of Ukraine for the period 2012–2021. As the results of the calculations show, for the analyzed time period the level of social risk is assessed as low, while the highest value was observed in 2015 (21.88 %), which is 40 % higher than the level of the previous year, in the period 2016–2019 there was a tendency to decrease the level of risk. In 2019, the level was 12.5 %, which is 43 % lower than in 2015. In 2019–2021, an increase in the level of social risk was revealed, which can be considered as a factor in the accumulation of additional challenges to security and sustainability of development, especially due to the impact of the pandemic. Monitoring and assessment of risks based on the proposed algorithm allows not only to assess the security risks of socio-economic development from the standpoint of impact on the state of security, but also to determine and adjust measures to respond to emerging threats and dangers. Key words: security, secure development, risk, risk level, social risk, threat, risk indicator, risk assessment, algorithm.