Abstract
Introduction. To determine the strategic directions of regional development to increase competitiveness, it is necessary to rely on a systematic analysis of factors and risks, to use modern mathematical modeling tools. To construct dynamic models for assessing the risks of competitiveness, an approach based on the systems of Kolmogorov – Chapman differential equations for Markov processes is applied. Theoretical analysis. The article examines the method of applying the logical-probabilistic approach to assessing the risks of regional competitiveness. Empirical analysis. For a comparative assessment of the risks of competitiveness at the stage of preliminary data processing, cluster analysis was applied using a modified k-means method. Based on the hierarchical system of regional competitiveness risks, the system of Kolmogorov – Chapman equations is formed. Dynamic assessment of competitiveness risks was carried out for three basic scenarios. Results. For a selected cluster of 33 Russian regions corresponding to a high level of socio-economic development, predictive estimates of the probabilities of critical events associated with risks of competitiveness were obtained using the example of a separate section. For optimistic, pessimistic and realistic scenarios, numerical assessments of competitiveness risks are obtained for various combinations of critical events. This made it possible to rank the regions by the probability of a decrease in the competitiveness of the regions in the medium term.
Highlights
This paper presents the results of the third edition of the Regional Competitiveness Index (RCI) which measures the different dimensions of competitiveness at the regional level in the European Union (EU)
They are all built on the approach of the Global Competitiveness Index of the World Economic Forum (GCI-WEF)
Comparing the RCI to gross domestic product (GDP) per head – an economic measure not directly included in the index – indicates a strong and positive relationship (Figure 3)
Summary
The new edition of the Regional Competitiveness Index (RCI) shows the continuing strength of the capital regions and other regions with metropolitan areas. In eastern and southern Member States, being close to the capital region does not seem to boost competitiveness. Compared to the two previous editions, published in 2010 and 2013, Malta and several regions in France, Germany, Sweden and the UK have improved their score, while the scores declined in Cyprus and regions in Greece, Ireland and more recently in the Netherlands. The RCI builds on the approach of the Global Competitiveness Index by the World Economic Forum. It covers a wide range of issues including innovation, governance, transport and digital infrastructure, and measures of health and human capital. A growing number of regions use it to identify their strengths and weaknesses and shape their development strategies
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