Проблемы и перспективы развития НИО.2 в рамках шестого технологического уклада

Abstract

The paper analyzes the process of the natural transition of the world economy from the fifth technological paradigm to the sixth one in the 2020s. It is shown that, by analogy with the periods of transition from the fourth technological paradigm to the fifth one in the 1970s, and from the third technological paradigm to the fourth one in the 1920s, the expected decline in economic activity, which has already manifested itself in the global economic crisis of the 2020s-2021s, is observed in the 2020s. It is noted that the traditional decline in economic activity in the extractive and processing industries, which takes place in the transition phase, is currently aggravated by the imminent global financial crisis, which is a consequence of a large-scale separation of the global money supply from the global commodity supply. And the resolution of this crisis is a matter of the near future (the next few years). It has been found that it is a huge surplus of unsecured financial resources (a global financial “bubble”) that makes a significant contribution to the slowdown of the processes of accelerating industrial technological development in the sixth technological paradigm by refocusing investors’ attention on speculative operations with cryptocurrencies and intangible assets, where the baton of the dot-com bubble has now been picked up by the set of information technologies under the banner of Industry 4.0, which was widely publicized, but never demonstrated its revolutionary economic efficiency. It has been shown that despite the fact that advanced global industrial technologies are a priority target for Western sanctions, the Russian economy continues to focus on the extractive industries developed in the framework of previous technological paradigms, the dominance of which in the national economy actually guarantees the technological backwardness of the country. Conditions have been formulated under which the prospects for the development of NIS.2 within the framework of the sixth technological paradigm in the Russian economy will be high.